Which Lottery Has the Best Odds?

The Division 1 odds for one standard game across Australia’s major lottery games are:

  • Powerball – 1 in 134,490,400
  • Oz Lotto – 1 in 62,891,499
  • Set for Life – 1 in 38,320,568
  • Saturday Lotto (TattsLotto) – 1 in 8,145,060
  • Weekday Windfall / Millionaire Medley – 1 in 8,145,060
  • Lucky Lotteries Super Jackpot – 1 in 270,000
  • Lucky Lotteries Mega Jackpot – 1 in 200,000

On those numbers alone, Lucky Lotteries Mega Jackpot has the shortest odds, while Powerball has the longest.

But comparing lottery odds isn’t quite that simple.

Every game has a different ticket cost and a different top prize.

For example, a standard Weekday Windfall game costs $0.68, while a Lucky Lotteries Super Jackpot ticket costs $2.30. For the price of one Super Jackpot ticket, you could buy around four Weekday Windfall games, giving you four chances rather than one.

The prizes are different too. Weekday Windfall’s top prize is up to $1 million, while Lucky Lotteries Super Jackpot’s top prize is $100,000.

With the odds, the cost and Division 1 prize all different, how do we really compare which lottery has the best odds?

Rather than simply comparing the odds of one standard game, we can put the games on a more even footing by considering how much you’re spending and what prize you’re trying to win.

Not sure how lottery odds are calculated or what the numbers actually mean? See our guide to How Lottery Odds Work in Australia.

The Odds & Illustrative Prize Calculator

Set your budget to see how the odds and potential prize compare across Australia’s lottery games this week.

How the calculator works

The calculator uses a few assumptions to put different lottery games on a more comparable footing.
Adjust your contribution, number of shares and number of Division 1 winners to see how the results change.

Higher contribution
+ more shares
= more chances

Fewer shares
+ fewer winners
= larger illustrative share

About the Number of shares

The calculator assumes you hold 1 share, with each share in the group having an equal value. Your contribution is the amount paid per share.

About the Illustrative prize per winner

The illustrative prize per winner is calculated using the current advertised prize and the number of winners entered into the calculator. You can change this to explore different scenarios.

Historical winner data is provided below as a reference when considering the number of winners to use.

The most common number of Division 1 winners was 1 from the base draw through to $60 million. Jackpot levels above $100 million had fewer historical draws, so the sample is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but the available data is shown below.

Base–$60M: 1 winner  ·  $80M: 2 · $100M: 1  ·  $120M: 2  ·  $150M: 1  ·  $160M: 3  ·  $200M: 2

The most common number of Division 1 winners was 1 across all jackpot levels in the historical data. The $100 million jackpot occurred twice, with 1 winner in one draw and 3 winners in the other.

Base–$100M: 1 winner

The most common number of Division 1 winners increased with the jackpot level in the historical data.

Base / $6M: 4 winners  ·  $10M: 7  ·  $20M: 8  ·  $30M: 14

These games have a single Division 1 prize level rather than different jackpot levels. The most common number of Division 1 winners was 1 for both games.

Weekday Windfall: 1 winner  ·  Set for Life: 1 winner

Important

Lottery draws are random. Historical results are used only to establish illustrative assumptions and do not predict future draw outcomes.
Calculator results are estimates based on the inputs and assumptions described above.